SHFE tin prices fluctuate at highs, with the low inventory pattern continuing to support tin prices. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on September 25, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs. As of the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract was quoted at 273,790 yuan/mt, up 2,220 yuan from the previous trading session, a gain of approximately 0.82%. The intraday trading range was between 271,700 yuan/mt and 274,180 yuan/mt, with the overall market showing a corrective rebound. In external markets, the LME tin price closed up 0.73% overnight at $34,270/mt, an increase of $250 from the previous session. During the Asian session, LME tin prices consolidated gains above the $34,300 level, exhibiting a technically fluctuating upward trend. The low inventory structure continues to support tin prices, with LME tin inventories at historically low levels, enhancing price elasticity.

On the macro front, market sentiment showed signs of warming. Although US Fed officials recently sent hawkish signals, market expectations for an October interest rate cut have not dissipated. This divergence in policy expectations has put the US dollar under pressure, leading to a pullback, and boosted the momentum for catch-up gains in dollar-denominated commodities. Domestically, the central bank maintained reasonably ample liquidity through open market operations, providing support for the base metal market.

In the short term, tin prices are expected to continue their fluctuating trend at highs, but the lack of comprehensive follow-through in demand limits further upside room. In the afternoon session, SHFE tin may primarily fluctuate, with the market closely monitoring key variables such as progress on production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State, the resilience of downstream peak season demand, and guidance from macroeconomic data. Currently, tin prices are seeking a balance between strong current fundamentals and weak expectations.